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Activity Number: 279
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 31, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and Marketing
Abstract - #309441
Title: A Theory of Attribution
Author(s): Barry Feldman*+
Companies: Prism Analytics/Russell Investment
Address: 14637 Starr Rd SE, Olalla, WA, 98359,
Keywords: Attribtuion ; cooperative games ; market research ; proportional value ; relative importance ; Shapley value
Abstract:

A general theory of attribution is developed. The probability that any ordering of factors in a general microeconomic model is properly ordered by relative importance is determined by elementary axioms. Two types of attribution result. These correspond to the Shapley (1953) value and the proportional value (Feldman (1999, 2002) and Ortmann (2000)) of a related cooperative game. Linear attribution based on the Shapley value is typically advocated as a decomposition method by marketing researchers (e.g., Conklin and Lipovetsky (2001) and Soofi, Retzer and Yasai-Ardekani (2000)). In proportional marginal attribution, the share of value received is equal to the probability that a factor is most important. The logic of linear and proportional marginal attribution is described. Examples highlight important differences between the linear and proportional marginal approaches.


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Revised September, 2007