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Activity Number:
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185
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Monday, July 30, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #309084 |
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Title:
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Space-Time Bayesian Environmental Modeling of the Chronic Wasting Disease in Deer
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Author(s):
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Hae-Ryoung Song*+ and Andrew B. Lawson and Dennis Heisey and Damien Joly
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Companies:
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University of South Carolina and University of South Carolina and U.S. Geological Survey and Alberta Sustainable Resource Development
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Address:
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206 S Gregg Street Apt 6A, Columbia, SC, 29205,
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Keywords:
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Abstract:
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We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate the pattern of spatial and temporal variation in disease prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer in Wisconsin. The aims of this study are to describe the geographical distribution of CWD and to assess the effect of demographic factors such as age and sex on prevalence of CWD. Since we do not observe the exact infection time, we consider our data censored and develop survival models based on the imputed infection time. Our model explains the variation of CWD using individual covariates, while accounting for purely spatial, temporal and space-time interacted random effects. It also allows the investigation of space-time spread of the disease by incorporating spatial, temporal, and space-time interacted infection rates. We apply our model to white-tailed deer data collected in Wisconsin from 2001--2006.
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