JSM Preliminary Online Program
This is the preliminary program for the 2007 Joint Statistical Meetings in Salt Lake City, Utah.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors
and not necessarily those of the ASA or its board, officers, or staff.


Back to main JSM 2007 Program page

Activity Number: 109
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 30, 2007 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #308761
Title: Bayesian Real-Time Model for Ovulation Prediction
Author(s): Lemuel Moye*+
Companies: University of Texas School of Public Health
Address: 3607 Latma Drive, Houston, TX, 77025,
Keywords: Bayesian ; ovulation ; physicians
Abstract:

Women of child bearing age commonly require accurate knowledge of their ovulation time. Working with fertility specialists, a Bayesian model for the real time prediction of the day of ovulation was developed. This model, based on the woman's prior ovulation history, her minimum and maximum basal body temperature (BBT) during the cycle, and her current BBT, provides the probability distribution that today is the ovulation day. This real time assessment is preferable to other models that, while providing ovulation assessments, must have the complete cycle to make their retrospective assessment. Designed to be used by both physicians and patients, this computing tool is easily programmed onto a PDA or website. Examples are provided.

  • The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
  • Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2007 program

JSM 2007 For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473. If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.
Revised September, 2007