JSM Preliminary Online Program
This is the preliminary program for the 2007 Joint Statistical Meetings in Salt Lake City, Utah.

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Activity Number: 246
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 31, 2007 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #308334
Title: Optimal Cost-Effective Designs of Proof of Concept Trials
Author(s): Cong Chen*+
Companies: Merck & Co., Inc.
Address: 1019 Brassington Dr, Collegeville, PA, 19426,
Keywords: efficiency score ; oncology ; optimal design
Abstract:

This presentation discusses optimal cost-effective designs for proof of concept (PoC) trials. Unlike a confirmatory registration trial, a PoC trial is exploratory in nature and sponsors of such trials have the liberty to choose type I error rate and the power. The decision is largely driven by the perceived probability of having a truly active treatment per patient exposure (a surrogate measure to development cost), which is naturally captured in an efficiency score to be presented. Optimization of the score function leads to type I error rate and power (and therefore sample size) for the trial that is most cost-effective. The idea is applied to derive optimal trial-level, program-level and franchise-level design strategies. From the examples provided herein, the audience should be able to gain much-needed insight in similar design problems and participate in strategic decisions.


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Revised September, 2007