Results of a Survey Estimating Mortality Before and After the 2003 Invasion of Iraq

• Activity Number: 443
• Type: Other
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
• Author(s): Leslie Roberts*+
• Companies: Columbia Mailman School of Public Health

Abstract

Methods: Between May and July 2006, a national mortality survey was conducted in Iraq using 50 clusters randomly selected among 16 governorates proportionate to size (achieved 47) of 40 households (achieved 39). Information on deaths from 1,849 households containing 12,812 persons was collected. Findings: 1474 births and 629 deaths were reported during the observation period. Death rates were 5.5/1000/yr (CI: 4.3-7.10) pre-invasion, and overall post-invasion, 13.3/1000/yr (CI: 10.9-16.1) for the roughly 40 months post-invasion. The death rates through September 2004 closely paralleled the results of our 2004 survey. We estimate that through July 2006, there have been 655,000 (CI: 393,000-943,000) excess deaths in Iraq as a consequence of the war. Of post-invasion deaths, 601,000 (CI: 426,000-794,000) were due to violence.