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Activity Number:
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209
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, July 30, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
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| Abstract - #309917 |
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Title:
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Parametric Time Dependent SIR Model
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Author(s):
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Di Shi*+ and Peter Gross
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Companies:
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Riverdale Country School and Riverdale Country School
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Address:
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2700 Henry Hudson PKWY Apt 4A, Riverdale, NY, 10463,
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Keywords:
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Parametric ; Disease Spread ; SIR Model
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Abstract:
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Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) broke out in 2003 resulting in 8098 SARS cases and 774 deaths. This epidemic caused significant social and economic disruption in the areas which it affected. While much has been learned about this syndrome since March 2003, a quantitative description of the disease spread out over time remains incomplete. A parametric time dependent disease spread SIR model was proposed in this project to study the impact of intervention. Parameters were estimated using SARS data reported by the WHO. This model can be used in simulating the effects of interventions in future epidemics.
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