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This is the preliminary program for the 2007 Joint Statistical Meetings in Salt Lake City, Utah.

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Activity Number: 321
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 31, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #309360
Title: Functional ANOVA Modeling of Regional Climate Model Experiments
Author(s): Cari Kaufman*+ and Stephan Sain
Companies: Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute/North Carolina State University and National Center for Atmospheric Research
Address: 19 TW Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709,
Keywords: climate models ; functional data ; spatial data
Abstract:

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is exploring uncertainties in regional climate modeling over North America by nesting a set of regional models within a set of global models. As a diagnostic tool to compare models across spatial regions, we propose a functional ANOVA approach, in which we decompose the climate response into a common mean response, effects due to regional model, effects due to global model, and interactions. We model these functional effects using Gaussian process priors, and we use the posterior distribution to compare sources of variability in model output.


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Revised September, 2007