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Activity Number:
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271
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, July 31, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
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| Abstract - #309101 |
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Title:
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Hazard Mapping: Modeling Volcanic Avalanches
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Author(s):
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E. Bruce Pitman*+
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Companies:
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University at Buffalo-SUNY
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Address:
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318 Math Building, Buffalo, NY, 14260,
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Keywords:
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volcanic avalanche ; simulation ; computer models ; SAMSI
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Abstract:
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The risk of volcanic eruption is one that public safety officials regularly confront. Accompanying an eruption can be the hazardous flow of ash and rock that races along the mountain at speeds of tens of meters per second and runs out over distances of several kilometers. The physical processes activated in these flows are not well understood. However there are tools are under development to simulate volcanic avalanche flows. Investigation of the hazard posed by these flows must consider unknown or poorly constrained ingredients of the flow models, including variability of the flowing materials, the variable terrain over which a flow occurs, and the likelihood of an eruption event and its size. This talk describes the major issues confronting the scientific community in developing hazard maps for volcanic flows, and highlights recent progress towards solutions.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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