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Activity Number:
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278
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, July 31, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Health Policy Statistics
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| Abstract - #308975 |
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Title:
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Age-Specific Prevalence and Years of Healthy Life in a System with Three Health States
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Author(s):
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Paula Diehr*+ and David Yanez and Ann Derleth and Anne Newman
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Companies:
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University of Washington and University of Washington and University of Washington and University of Pittsburgh
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Address:
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Box 357232, Seattle, WA, 98195,
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Keywords:
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multi-state lifetable ; years of healthy life ; self-rated health
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Abstract:
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Consider a three-state system with one absorbing state, such as Healthy, Sick, and Dead. Over time, the prevalence of the Healthy state will approach an "equilibrium" value that is independent of the initial conditions. We derived this equilibrium prevalence (Prev:Equil) as a function of the local transition probabilities. We then used Prev:Equil to estimate the expected number of years spent in the healthy state over time by adapting the Sullivan method for longitudinal data. This estimate is similar to one calculated by multistate life table methods and has the added advantage of having an associated standard error. In an example, we found that the standard error is accurate when a valid survival table is known from other sources, or when the available dataset is large enough to estimate survival accurately. It performs best when the number of waves of longitudinal data is not large.
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