|
Activity Number:
|
381
|
|
Type:
|
Contributed
|
|
Date/Time:
|
Wednesday, August 1, 2007 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
|
|
Sponsor:
|
Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
|
| Abstract - #308474 |
|
Title:
|
A Joint Multivariate Ordered Probit and Tobit Modeling of Households' Vehicle Choice and Usage
|
|
Author(s):
|
Hao Fang*+
|
|
Companies:
|
University of California, Irvine
|
|
Address:
|
Department of Economics, Irvine, CA, 92697-5100,
|
|
Keywords:
|
multivariate ordered probit ; multivariate tobit ; discrete/continuous ; vehicle choice ; residential density
|
|
Abstract:
|
The paper quantifies how residential density influences households' vehicle fuel economy choices and vehicle usage. Traditional nested logit modeling of vehicle choice becomes cumbersome with large numbers of vehicles and vehicle categories. I propose a more flexible method of modeling vehicle holdings in terms of number of vehicles in each category, with a Bayesian multivariate ordinal response system. I also combine the ordered equations with multivariate tobit equations to jointly estimate vehicle type/usage demand in a reduced form, offering a simpler alternative to the traditional discrete-continuous analysis. The estimation results show that the impact of density on households' vehicle choice is small but statistically significant, and comparable to income effect. The method used to estimate the system can also be applied to other discrete-continuous problems.
|
