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Activity Number:
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403
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 1, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Quality and Productivity
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| Abstract - #307895 |
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Title:
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Bayesian Modeling of Accelerated Life Tests with Random Effects
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Author(s):
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Ramon V. Leon and Avery J. Ashby*+
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Companies:
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University of Tennessee and BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee
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Address:
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, , ,
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Keywords:
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Bayesian Life Tests ; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) ; Random Effects ; Credibility Interval ; Prediction Interval ; WinBUGS
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Abstract:
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We show how to use Bayesian methods to make inferences from an accelerated life test where the test units come from different groups (such as batches) and the group effect is random and significant both statistically and practically. Our approach can handle multiple random effects and several accelerating factors. We illustrate the method with an application concerning Space Shuttle pressure vessels wrapped in Kevlar 49 fibers where the fibers of each vessel comes from a single spool and the spool effect is random. We show how Bayesian analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is used to answer questions of interest in accelerated life tests with random effects which are not as easily answered with more traditional frequentist methods. Our approach is implemented in the freely available WinBUGS software so that readers can apply the method to their own data.
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