The Kyoto Accord, the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report, and the Academic Papers Underpinning Them

• Activity Number: 354
• Type: Other
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 9, 2006 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: The ASA
• Author(s): Edward Wegman*+
• Companies: George Mason University
• Keywords: PCA ; paleoclimate reconstruction ; climate change ; global warming

Abstract

The Kyoto Accord focused on reducing greenhouse gasses and was supported by the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "2001 Third Assessment Report." This report featured the "hockey stick" millennium temperature reconstruction based on a number of proxy variables. The academic papers that developed the reconstruction used a principal components analysis, which has been challenged by critics due to inappropriate use of PCA and a lack of independent verification of the findings. We discuss the methodology used, the use of potentially problematic data, and the social network of authors in temperature reconstruction. The implications of global warming are important for the financial and human dimensions, and public policy decisions must be made on a statistically sound, uncontroversial basis. D. Scott, D. Brillinger, Y. Said, J. Rigsby, D. Reeves, and A. Braverman contributed to this report.