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Activity Number:
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251
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 8, 2006 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
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| Abstract - #307611 |
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Title:
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Early, Cost-Effective Identification of High-Risk/Priority Control Areas in Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemics
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Author(s):
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Steven Schwager*+ and Ariel Rivas and Stephen Smith and Antoni Magri
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Companies:
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Cornell University and Cornell University and Cornell University and Cornell University
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Address:
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Department of BSCB, Ithaca, NY, 14853,
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Keywords:
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foot-and-mouth disease ; epidemic ; multivariate methods
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Abstract:
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Data from the 2001 Uruguayan Foot-and-Mouth Disease epidemic were examined to seek improved cost-benefit based policies. Variables analyzed were location and size of 4,022 individual land parcels (574 infected over 60 days); animal density; percentage of dairy farms per county; and road density. Each variable was categorized and the cases per class at epidemic days 1-3 and 4-6 were compared. More cases were found at days 4-6 than 1-3 in areas with small parcels, high animal density, >20% dairy farms, and high road density (each p< 0.03). These classes had greater proportions of cases at days 7-60 than their proportions of total area. The region constructed by intersecting the classes with more cases at days 4-6 included 50.4% of all cases at days 7-60 in only 30.6% of the area. The area per case in this region was =33% lower and covered =45% less area than any one-variable approach.
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