Modeling the Interaction between Intelligent Site Selection and Other Stochastic Processes with Applications to Terrorism

• Activity Number: 532
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 10, 2006 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statisticians in Defense and National Security
• Author(s): Michael Porter*+ and Charles D. Robinson and Donald E. Brown
• Companies: University of Virginia and University of Virginia and University of Virginia
• Keywords: intelligent site selection ; space-time Cox point process ; terrorism ; improvised explosive device (IED)

Abstract

This work seeks to combine an intelligent site selection (ISS) point process with other space-time stochastic processes and model their interactions. The rationale for this modeling effort is to study the placement and subsequent detonation or discovery of improvised explosive devices (IED) commonly used by terrorists. The ISS process, in this situation, is one in which the terrorists judiciously select the locations and times to place IEDs. For an IED attack to be successful, the device must interact with a potential target prior to being detected and cleared. Thus, the target movements and detection efforts are the additional stochastic processes considered. The ISS process is modeled as a space-time Cox point process with the interaction resulting in a thinned point process. A result of this modeling effort is to observe the emergent behavior of agents acting within this framework.