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Activity Number:
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205
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 7, 2006 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Business and Economics Statistics Section
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| Abstract - #307539 |
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Title:
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Do Regular Cycles Occur in American Politics?
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Author(s):
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Samuel Merrill*+ and Bernard Grofman
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Companies:
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Wilkes University and University of California, Irvine
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Address:
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3024 43rd Court, NW, Olympia, WA, 98502,
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Keywords:
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spectral analysis ; time series ; negative feedback
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Abstract:
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Are there cycles in American politics (i.e., does the proportion of the Democratic/Republican vote share for president or seat share in Congress rise and fall over extended periods of time and, if so, are the cycles regular?) If so, what is the cycling period? If there are regular cycles, can we construct an integrated model - such as a negative feedback loop - that identifies forces that could generate the observed patterns? We use spectral analysis to test for the presence and length of cycles and develop a voter-party interaction model that depends on the tensions between parties' policy and office motivations and between voters' tendency to sustain incumbents while reacting against extreme policies. We find a plausible fit between the regular cycling that this model projects and the time series of two-party politics in America over the past century and a half.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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