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Activity Number:
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501
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 10, 2006 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
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| Abstract - #307468 |
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Title:
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Estimating Lifetime Risk Accounting for Baseline Prevalence: High Total Cholesterol in Framingham Heart Study
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Author(s):
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Michael Pencina*+ and Ralph B. D'Agostino and Ramachandran S. Vasan and Alexa Beiser and Mark R. Cobain
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Companies:
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Boston University and Boston University and Framingham Heart Study and Boston University and Unilever Corporate Research
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Address:
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111 Cummington Street, Boston, MA, 02215,
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Keywords:
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disease-free survival ; incidence ; prevalence ; hypercholesterolemia ; risk adjustment
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Abstract:
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The lifetime risk statistic has been successfully applied to estimate and highlight the risk of numerous diseases. It can be estimated as cumulative incidence of new onset adjusted for the competing risk of death. We propose an extension of this methodology which additionally adjusts for baseline prevalence of the disease. The lifetime risk is most commonly calculated based on a follow-up of disease-free individuals which poses no problems when applied to the conditions rare in younger ages. However, hypercholesterolemia is present at substantial prevalence regardless of how early we start the follow-up. Adjusting for baseline prevalence is necessary to avoid serious underestimation of actual risk. We apply this methodology to estimate the long-term risks of high total cholesterol level based on incidence from the Framingham Heart Study and prevalence from NHANES III.
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