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Activity Number:
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481
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 9, 2006 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #307155 |
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Title:
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Model Selection for the Impact Evaluation of Energy Efficiency Programs
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Author(s):
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Kathryn Parlin*+ and Larry Haugh
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Companies:
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West Hill Energy and Computing, Inc. and University of Vermont
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Address:
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23 Williamstown Road, Chelsea, VT, 05038,
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Keywords:
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pooled cross-section time series ; model selection ; information theoretic approach ; impact evaluation
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Abstract:
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The impact evaluation of conservation programs is designed to determine the savings that can be attributed to a program during a specific period. Linear regression is commonly applied to consumption records for estimating the impacts from energy efficiency measures and programs. Specific modeling decisions can have a major impact on the results of the analysis and variations in methodology can be nearly as numerous as the individuals performing the analysis. This research provides a comprehensive discussion of the types of models that can be applied to the impact analyses of energy conservation programs, some strategies for selecting among the candidate models and an illustration of the range of models and selection process through the application to a specific impact evaluation targeted to the low income population in Vermont. The information-theoretic approach is used to rank mod
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