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Activity Number:
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345
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 8, 2006 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #306903 |
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Title:
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Projecting the Risk of Future Climate Shifts
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Author(s):
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Luis Cid*+ and David B. Enfield
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Companies:
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Universidad de Concepción and National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
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Address:
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Departamento de Estadistica, CONCEPCION, 01, Chile
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Keywords:
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multidecadal climate variability ; paleoclimate reconstruction ; climate shift risk
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Abstract:
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Recent research has shown decadal-to-multidecadal climate variability associated with environmental changes have important consequences for human activities. How do we convert these relationships into decision support products useful to managers, interested in knowing when future climate regime shifts will likely occur? Numerical models are not able to make deterministic predictions for future climate shifts. Recent development of paleoclimate reconstructions based on tree ring proxy for the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) allow us to estimate probability distribution functions from long climate index series and to calculate the probability of future regime shifts. We show how probabilistic decision support tools can be developed for a specific climate. The methods are robust and can, in principle, be applied to any climate mode for which a sufficiently long index series exists.
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