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Activity Number: 539
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 10, 2006 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #306899
Title: Identifying Effect Modifiers in Air Pollution
Author(s): Sandrah P. Eckel*+ and Thomas A. Louis
Companies: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Johns Hopkins University
Address: Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205,
Keywords: air pollution ; time series ; multi-level ; CART ; effect modification
Abstract:

Studies of the health effects of air pollution such as the National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) relate changes in daily pollution to daily deaths in a sample of cities and calendar years. Generally, location-specific estimates are combined over locations using a two-stage model. Our analysis relates single-day lagged PM10 to daily mortality in people over 65 from the 50 largest NMMAPS cities. We build on the standard approach by "fractionating" the city-specific analysis to produce month/city/year specific estimated air pollution effects (slopes). We identify potential effect modifiers via linear regression and regression trees with the estimated slopes as dependent variables and predictors such as dew point temperature, temperature, CO, NO2, O3, SO2, season, year and region. We report on our methods and findings.

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