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Activity Number: 136
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 7, 2006 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #306857
Title: Poisson Stars and Phylogenetic Trees: Limits of Inferences on Population History
Author(s): James Dunyak*+ and Marc Colosimo and Lynette Hirschman
Companies: The MITRE Corporation and The MITRE Corporation and The MITRE Corporation
Address: 202 Burlington Road, Bedford, MA, 01730,
Keywords: phylogenetic tree ; SEIR ; coalescence
Abstract:

The distribution of DNA sequences in a population and the resulting phylogenetic trees involve a complex interaction between the biological clock, the coalescence process, and the population history. In the most challenging case, all mutations occur after final coalescence, and the resulting tree is star-shaped with all branches emanating from a single node and Poisson-distributed genetic distances. We explore population inferences associated with rapidly spreading influenza virus in a single outbreak season in a single geographic area. Both exponential and susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed models are considered for population growth models. Estimates are then developed for the probability of obtaining a Poisson star and inferences are made on the initial seed size, growth rate, and other parameters.

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