Welfare Reform Revisited: Leavers and Cyclers---How Are They Doing under the New Restrictive Time Limits?

• Activity Number: 321
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 8, 2006 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
• Author(s): Carole L. Popoff*+ and Qi Wang
• Companies: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau
• Keywords: multi-level modeling ; survival analysis ; welfare reform ; welfare leavers

Abstract

Following 1996, welfare caseloads declined by 50--60%. Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation 2001 panel, we will investigate whether leaving and/or returning to TANF is associated with changes in demographic characteristics, family structure, employment opportunities, and educational attainment using survival analysis (Popoff and Wang 2005). Also, we will add variables that capture general economic conditions, state-specific participation rules, and other variables that may have influenced welfare leavers' actions by employing a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM)---a multi-level approach---to the original survival analysis. This will add a broader perspective from which to determine factors at both the individual or family level and the higher aggregate level where economic and other conditions may influence behavior.