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Activity Number: 509
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 10, 2006 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Quality and Productivity
Abstract - #306482
Title: Beta-Geometric Distribution in Survival Modeling
Author(s): Alfred Akinsete*+
Companies: Marshall University
Address: Department of Mathematics, Huntington, WV, 25755,
Keywords: probability ; distribution ; manpower ; fecundability ; beta-geometric ; modeling
Abstract:

We discuss the conditional distribution of a geometric random variable, where the parameter itself has a beta distribution. The mixture of these distributions is referred to as the beta-geometric distribution (BGD). We obtain a generalized expression for the moments, with a recursion noted in the probability function. The application of the distribution in fecundability and manpower or contractual modeling is investigated. We obtain estimates of the survival and hazard functions of the fitted model. The method of the maximum likelihood estimates is discussed, and estimates of the parameters of a set of data are obtained.


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