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Abstract:
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Capture-Recapture models are used to estimate the unknown sizes of animal populations. For closed populations, those with constant size during the study, eight standard models exist for estimating population size. These models allow for variation in animal capture probabilities due to time effects, heterogeneity among animals, and behavioral effects after the first capture. Using Bayesian statistical modeling, we present versions of these eight models. We explore the use of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) as tools for selecting the appropriate model for a given dataset. Through simulation, we show that AIC performs well in selecting the true model, and whether a particular model is robust when fit to data with different effects. Finally, we illustrate our methods by analyzing a population of cottontail rabbits.
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