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Activity Number:
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282
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 8, 2006 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
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| Abstract - #306355 |
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Title:
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Statistical Determination of the Length of Quarantine Periods in an Epidemic
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Author(s):
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Xiaojun You*+
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Companies:
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Johns Hopkins University
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Address:
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E3031 Biostatistics Department, Baltimore, MD, 21205,
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Keywords:
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quarantine ; SARS ; incubation period ; truncated density
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Abstract:
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Quarantine of contacts of known SARS patients proved effective at controlling further transmissions during the 2003 outbreak. However, little work has been done on determining the optimal quarantine length. Our initial work analyzed the impact of using the maximal reported incubation period from an outbreak to guide quarantine policy. To do this, we quantified the probability of an infectious case transmitting disease after such quarantine. Methods were developed using order statistics theory with validation via a simulation study. Later we derived methods to calculate the desired quarantine length based on different criteria using maximum likelihood estimation with a truncated density function. The effectiveness of these latter methods was evaluated using simulation studies. Current work involves application and evaluation of the method using data from an actual in-flight SARS outbreak.
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