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Activity Number: 145
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 7, 2006 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #306249
Title: Categorical Time Series Modeling Using Data from the Current Population Survey
Author(s): Stephen Miller*+
Companies: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Address: 2 Massachusettes Ave., NE, Washington, DC, 20212,
Keywords: labor force estimates ; gross flows ; model assisted sampling ; measurement error
Abstract:

The Current Population Survey (CPS) collects labor force information from individuals in approximately 50,000 households each month. The 4-8-4 rotation sampling design of the CPS results in approximately a 75% overlap of respondents month-to-month, and approximately 50% over a twelve month span. This overlap allows for the estimation of Gross Flow (month-to-month) changes in Labor Force status, as well as improved estimation of monthly Stock estimates via Composite Estimation. We propose a unified modeling approach which combines both cross-sectional, time series, and (potentially) auxiliary information to estimate labor force classifications over time. We examine several micro-level modeling approaches, and combine the model-based approach along with the design-based approach through the use of estimating equations. Some additional modeling of measurement error is also examined.

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