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Activity Number:
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282
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 8, 2006 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
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| Abstract - #306169 |
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Title:
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Bayesian Analysis of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Baltimore, MD
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Author(s):
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Yue Yin*+
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Companies:
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Johns Hopkins University
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Address:
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615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD, 21205,
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Keywords:
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influenza pandemic ; basic reproductive number ; infectious disease modeling ; disease transmissibility
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Abstract:
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Around 30 million people were killed in the influenza pandemic of 1918. Though this pandemic has been thoroughly studied, several features remain unexplained. The change of disease transmissibility is suspected to have caused the multiple temporal waves in incidence, which has important implications for pandemic preparedness. With an emphasis in modeling the disease transmissibility, we analyze the population level time series data of influenza in Baltimore using Bayesian method. We found a time-varying disease transmissibility which peaks in the middle of the epidemic.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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