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Activity Number: 113
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 7, 2006 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #306165
Title: Bayesian Inference for the Lead Time in Periodic Cancer Screening
Author(s): Dongfeng Wu*+ and Gary L. Rosner and Lyle D. Broemeling
Companies: Mississippi State University and M. D. Anderson Cancer Center and M. D. Anderson Cancer Center
Address: Department of Math and Statistics, Mississippi State, MS, 39762,
Keywords: lead time ; periodic screening exams ; breast cancer early detection ; sensitivity ; sojourn time ; transition probability
Abstract:

This paper develops a probability distribution for the lead time in periodic cancer screening exams. The general aim is to provide statistical inferences for the lead time, the length of time the diagnosis is advanced by screening. The lead time is distributed as a mixture of a point mass and a piecewise continuous distribution. Simulations are carried out, using the HIP data, to estimate under different screening time intervals, the proportion of breast cancer patients who truly benefit from the periodic screening exams and the proportion that do not. The mean, the mode, the standard deviation and the density curve of the lead time are also provided. This provides important information to policy makers regarding the screening period and the long-term benefit for women who take part in the program. The result is also applicable to other kinds of chronic disease.

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