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Abstract:
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Each month the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes over 18,000 employment time series categorized by industry for states and metropolitan areas (MSAs). Through time, changes to industry and area definitions create discontinuities in these series. These discontinuities or "breaks" do not represent actual shifts in the level of employment; instead they reflect non-economic changes and diminish the integrity of the series. Finding a single method to rectify breaks in these CES time series presents multiple challenges: in addition to being numerous, the series are also quite diverse in terms of geography, industry, seasonality, and employment level. This paper describes potential remedies for series discontinuities caused by recent major administrative changes such as the North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) and MSA redefinitions.
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