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Activity Number:
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405
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 9, 2006 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Business and Economics Statistics Section
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| Abstract - #305900 |
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Title:
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Reference Week Adjustment of Labor Force Series with X-12-ARIMA
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Author(s):
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Zhao-Guo Chen*+ and Thierno A. Balde and Benoit Quenneville and Helen Fung
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Companies:
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Statistics Canada and Statistics Canada and Statistics Canada and Statistics Canada
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Address:
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120 Parkdale Ave., Ottawa, ON, K1A 0T6, Canada
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Keywords:
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labor force survey ; seasonal adjustment ; X-11-ARIMA ; X-12-ARIMA ; reference week ; regression
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Abstract:
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The Labor Force Survey (LFS) collects information on employment, unemployment, and actual hours worked during a reference week of the months. The data are affected by events such as a sporadic holiday occurring in the reference week. Also, data are affected by the reference week being earlier or later in the month. Statistics Canada currently uses X-11-ARIMA for seasonal adjustment. These reference week effects are estimated with a regression model on the irregular component of the series obtained from a first run of X-11-ARIMA. The estimated factors are then used as permanent prior-adjustment factors in a second run of X-11-ARIMA. We are planning to switch to X-12-ARIMA for the seasonal adjustment of LFS series. We study how to set the regression model with X-12-ARIMA properly and which is convenient for future operation. We also compare the new method with the previous one.
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