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Activity Number: 403
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 9, 2006 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statisticians in Defense and National Security
Abstract - #305856
Title: Use of Uncertainty Information in Deterministic Weather Forecasting Decisions
Author(s): Susan Joslyn*+
Companies: University of Washington
Address: Department of Psychology, Seattle, WA, 98195,
Keywords: psychology ; decision-making ; uncertainty information ; weather-forecasting
Abstract:

The psychological research reported here investigates people's use and understanding of information about weather forecast uncertainty in deterministic forecasting decisions. A series of experiments demonstrates that such information is beneficial to threshold decisions (e.g.,. whether to post a high wind advisory), but that presentation format and wording are crucial to people's understanding.

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