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Activity Number:
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262
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 8, 2006 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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SSC
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| Abstract - #305234 |
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Title:
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A Stochastic Model for Forest Fire Growth
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Author(s):
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Willard J. Braun*+
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Companies:
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University of Western Ontario
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Address:
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Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, London, ON, N6A 5B7, Canada
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Keywords:
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wildfires ; spread ; stochastic model
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Abstract:
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Forest fires often spread in unpredictable ways. Deterministic models of fire spread have been developed in both Canada and the United States. These models capture 'expected' behavior of fire spread fairly well, but are unable to give information about variability. In particular, spot fires are difficult to model using these deterministic approaches. We propose an interacting particle system as a way of incorporating stochasticity into the modeling of this highly variable phenomena. The model lives on a regular two-dimensional lattice. Each lattice site may be occupied by unburnt fuel, burning fuel, or burnt fuel; alternatively, a site may contain water or some other nonflammable material. State transitions are accomplished according to a continuous-time Markov chain. This talk will give details of this model and demonstrate how spot fires can be incorporated.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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