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Activity Number: 265
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 8, 2006 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: WNAR
Abstract - #305172
Title: Using Computer Models To Inform about Space-Time Fields
Author(s): Dave Higdon*+
Companies: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Address: MS F600, Los Alamos, NM, 87545,
Keywords: computer model ; Gaussian process ; calibration
Abstract:

Almost all observable space-time fields result from some physical process that evolves over time. Examples range from the formation of ozone to the formation of the universe. Many of these physical systems can be simulated using computer models. However, utilizing such models in statistical inference is often problematic---models are usually quite computationally intensive and typically require large numbers of input settings that are not known a priori. Despite these challenges, the allure of detailed physical simulation models persists. Incorporating such models can lead to greater prediction accuracy and gives a mechanism for extrapolating well beyond observed experience. This talk focuses on approaches for utilizing detailed physics simulation models within the framework of space-time modeling. Applications in cosmology and weather will be considered.


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Revised April, 2006