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Abstract:
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It is often the case in ecological monitoring projects that only binary data collection is feasible on large spatial and temporal domains. In such settings, the propagation of underlying ecological phenomena may still behave in a well-defined theoretical fashion, though limited information prohibits the implementation of conventional spatio-temporal process models. When there is simply not enough information to inform such scientifically based parameterizations, we propose the use of a scientifically naive, rule-based dynamic process model within a hierarchical framework. Utilizing only simple model specifications can still accommodate multiple sources of uncertainty yet exhibit complicated, large-scale, dynamical behavior for characterizing the spread of invasive species with only minimal data.
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