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Activity Number:
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257
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 8, 2006 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Business and Economics Statistics Section
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| Abstract - #305006 |
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Title:
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Accounting for Katrina Effects in State Labor Force Estimates
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Author(s):
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Richard Tiller*+ and Sharon Brown
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Companies:
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Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Address:
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2 Massachusettes Ave., NE, Washington, DC, 20212,
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Keywords:
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small area estimation ; state-space models ; outliers ; seasonal adjustment
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Abstract:
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses state-space time series models to produce state labor force estimates from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS). Covariates from state unemployment insurance data and payroll employment from the Current Employment Statistics program are used to help estimate trend movements in the CPS. The use of models produces estimators with much smaller variances than the survey estimates, but the models can be slow to adapt to external shocks to the economy. Hurricane Katrina presented a special challenge because it resulted in major under coverage of the population in affected states due to the displacement of persons in the CPS sample during the disaster. In short, Katrina was unobserved in the CPS sample. This paper describes how information from the covariates was used to estimate the effects of Katrina on state labor force values.
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