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Activity Number: 47
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Sunday, August 6, 2006 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #304962
Title: Ensemble Models for Risk Prediction with Survey and Multilevel Data
Author(s): Stuart A. Gansky*+ and Nancy F. Cheng
Companies: University of California, San Francisco and University of California, San Francisco
Address: 3333 California Street, Suite 495, San Francisco, CA, 94118,
Keywords: classification and regression tree ; random forests ; survey ; nesting ; logit ; hybrid
Abstract:

Classification and regression tree (CART), multiple additive regression tree (MART), and random forests (RF) prediction models are powerful prediction techniques. Multilevel or complex survey sample data need to have their designs taken into account to provide proper inference. Ensemble models to account for these designs with a multilevel hybrid CART survey logit model approach and differential misclassification costs were developed. Extensions for ensemble models with MART and with RF are proposed. A stratified cluster sample health examination survey of early childhood caries is used for illustration. Results show that this hybrid approach may be effective at identifying associations with health disparities. Support: US DHHS NIH/NIDCR, NCMHD U54DE14251.


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