|
Abstract:
|
We present an approach that allows one to build a comprehensive mathematical model for simulation of disease spread based on combined survey and published data. We illustrate the model-building process---including the selection process for known and unknown parameters---with a comprehensive model of HIV/STD spread within sexual, drug, and social networks in a North Carolina community. The model is agent-based in as much as microsimulation occurs at the level of each individual in the model. The parameters are obtained partially from peer-reviewed sources and estimated from a 480+ question survey, which currently is being conducted among a high-risk population in Eastern North Carolina. The model provides a basis for answering a number of research questions related to sampling, epidemic course, critical parameters and interventions, interplay of hierarchical factors, etc.
|
