Statistical GeoInformatics of Hotspot Detection and Prioritization for Early Warning and Disaster Management

• Activity Number: 178
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Monday, August 7, 2006 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
• Author(s): Ganapati P. Patil*+ and Luiz Duczmal and Reza Modarres and Stephen L. Rathbun
• Companies: The Pennsylvania State University and Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais and The George Washington University and University of Georgia
• Keywords: poset prioritization system ; upper level set scan statistic system ; crimes ; wild fires ; disease outbreaks ; persistent poverty trajectories

Abstract

Geoinformatic surveillance for spatial and spatiotemporal hotspot detection and prioritization, early warning, and sustainable management is a critical need for the 21st century. Our detection innovation employs the notion of an upper-level set, and accordingly is called the upper-level set scan statistic system (Patil and Taillie 2004, Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 11, 183-197). The prioritization innovation employs the notion of a partially ordered set, and accordingly is called the poset prioritization system (Patil and Taillie, 2004, Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 11, 198-228). In this presentation, we will discuss these innovations and the investigations in progress, relating to a variety of case studies involving natural disaster management and early warning (e.g., crimes, wildfires, disease outbreaks, persistent poverty trajectories, etc.).