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Abstract:
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In the study of variable stars, where the light reaching an observer fluctuates over time, it can be the nature of the variation, unless it follows a regular pattern. In this respect, so-called periodic variable stars are particularly amenable to analysis. There, radiation varies in a perfectly periodic fashion, and period length is a major focus of interest. In this talk, we consider methodology for conducting inference about features that might account for departures from strict periodicity. In particular, we discuss the potential variation, over time, of the period or amplitude of radiation. We suggest techniques for estimating the parameters of this evolution and for testing the hypothesis that the evolution is present. This problem has a number of unusual features, including subtle issues of identifiability and strikingly fast convergence rates. The latter reflects the considerable impact that even small departures from exact periodicity can have on the visual appearance of the data.
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