|
Activity Number:
|
3
|
|
Type:
|
Invited
|
|
Date/Time:
|
Sunday, August 6, 2006 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
|
|
Sponsor:
|
WNAR
|
| Abstract - #304885 |
|
Title:
|
A Geometric Approach to Comparing Treatments for Rapidly Fatal Diseases
|
|
Author(s):
|
Peter F. Thall*+ and Leiko H. Wooten and Elizabeth J. Shpall
|
|
Companies:
|
M. D. Anderson Cancer Center and M. D. Anderson Cancer Center and M. D. Anderson Cancer Center
|
|
Address:
|
Department of Biostatistics and Applied Math, Box 447, Houston, TX, 77030,
|
|
Keywords:
|
adaptive design ; Bayesian design ; clinical trials ; competing risks ; cord blood transplantation ; computer simulation
|
|
Abstract:
|
In therapy of rapidly fatal diseases where the risk of death decreases with response to treatment, it is desirable to achieve a response as quickly as possible. We propose a Bayesian method for comparing treatments in this setting using a competing risks model for response and death. Treatment effect is defined as a two-dimensional parameter: the probability of response and the mean time to response. Several target parameter pairs are elicited from the physician so all pairs embody equally desirable improvements in treatment efficacy compared to a fixed standard. A curve fit to the elicited pairs is used to determine a two-dimensional parameter set where a new treatment is superior to the standard. Posterior probabilities of this set are used to construct rules for treatment comparison and safety monitoring. The method will be illustrated by a cord blood transplantation trial.
|
