JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #304880

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	164
Type:	Other
Date/Time:	Monday, August 8, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor:	ASA
Abstract - #304880
Title:	Investigating Causes of within Precinct Error in Exit Polls: Confounds and Controversies
Author(s):	Elizabeth Liddle and Mark Lindeman*+
Companies:	Bard College and University Nottingham
Address:	, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY, 12504,
Keywords:	Within-Precinct Error ; Exit-polls ; confounds ; vote-count margins
Abstract:	One measure of the accuracy of exit polls conducted during presidential elections has been the "within-precinct error" or WPE. This is computed by subtracting the estimated margin between the candidates, in percentage points, from the margin in the counted vote, also in percentage points. If the error does not sum to zero over the totality of precincts, the sign of the mean error will indicate a net overestimate of the vote for one of the candidates. The WPE has therefore been used in the past as a dependent variable in investigations into causes of polling bias. However, the WPE as a measure is mathematically confounded by precinct partisanship, raising questions regarding the validity of such investigations. This study addresses problems presented by the use of the WPE as a dependent measure. It models the nature of the confound introduced into analyses by the WPE, describes a computation whereby an unconfounded index of sampling bias can be retrieved from the data, and recommends this index as an alternative to the WPE as a dependent measure in investigations into the causes and magnitude of sampling bias in exit polls.

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