JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #304877

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 164
Type: Other
Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: ASA
Abstract - #304877
Title: Exit Poll Bias in the 2004 U.S. General Election
Author(s): Warren Mitofsky*+
Companies: Mitofsky International
Address: 1776 Broadway, New York, NY, 10019,
Keywords:
Abstract:

The 2004 exit polls conducted for five television networks and the Associated Press had a bias that was higher than in previous years. An on-going investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: a higher than usual Within Precinct Error, most likely due to differential interviewing rates of Kerry and Bush voters. There have been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican. This paper discusses the errors in the exit poll estimates and attempts to identify the factors that contributed to these errors.

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