JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #304856

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 460
Type: Other
Date/Time: Thursday, August 11, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: ASA
Abstract - #304856
Title: Objective Bayesian Testing and Model Selection
Author(s): M. J. Bayarri*+
Companies: University of Valencia
Address: Department of Statistics and O.R., Burjassot, 46100, Spain
Keywords:
Abstract:

An introduction to objective Bayesian hypothesis testing will be given and contrasted with the use of P-values and standard frequentist testing. After basic illustrative examples of testing (two hypotheses), model selection (multiple hypotheses) will be discussed. This differs dramatically from the estimation context in that improper "noninformative" priors typically cannot be used. The primary model selection problem to be considered in illustration is the variable selection problem, where the notions of conventional proper priors, posterior inclusion probabilities of variables, and search strategies for large model spaces will be introduced. If time permits, discussion of model checking (when no "alternative" is available) will be discussed.


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Revised March 2005