JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #304740

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 107
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #304740
Title: Infection Transmission Model for Risk Assessment of Waterborne Pathogens in Drinking Water
Author(s): Zhenxu J. Ma*+ and Pam J. Rodgers and Mark E. Kelley and Brenda Boutin
Companies: Battelle and Battelle and Battelle and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Address: 7025 Lakebrook Blvd, Columbus, OH, 43235, United States
Keywords: Microbial risk assessment ; Secondary transmission rate ; Monte Carlo methods ; Boostrap Confident Interval ; Dynamic System Models
Abstract:

This paper describes a stochastic compartmental model approach to microbial risk assessment of waterborne pathogens. We take a population perspective in the development of a mathematical dynamic system that characterizes the human disease risk of ingestion of waterborne pathogens in drinking water, in which the secondary transmission has an effect on the risk of disease. In this model, individuals change from susceptible, to infectious, to diseased, to immune, and then back to susceptible stats within a defined population. The proposed stochastic model accounts for the uncertainty associated with risk of infection and with gathering information from data and literature for a large number of parameters and state variables. Through the use of Monte Carlo techniques, we study the levels of uncertainty of human risk and identify the relative importance of the input parameters. The analysis concerns estimation of human risk of exposure to Norwalk-like viruses in a drinking water supply. The proposed model can be extended into a subpopulation model to characterize the different risk rates and other exposure characteristics.

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