JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #304626

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	147
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Monday, August 8, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #304626
Title:	Evaluation of Smoothing Methods for Estimating Mortality Dynamics over Age and Time with Application to U.S. Mortality
Author(s):	Kirill Andreev*+
Companies:	Queen's University
Address:	Abramsky Hall, Kingston, ON, K7L 3N6, Canada
Keywords:	Demography ; Mortality ; United States ; Surface Smoothing ; Kernel Smoothing ; Tensor Product Spline
Abstract:	Mortality dynamics over time is usually analyzed by exploring trends in age-specific death rates or by calculating aggregate measures such as life expectancy at birth. However, better insights into mortality trends can be gained by exploring surfaces of mortality improvement over age and time. Statistical methods for estimating such surfaces are underdeveloped, as this topic emerged only recently in demographic and actuarial research with accumulation of reliable data on human mortality spanning extended periods of time (www.mortality.org). In this work, two smoothing methods---kernel and tensor-product spline smoothers---are applied to simulated data in order to evaluate their performance in revealing typical patterns of mortality improvement. Finally, the methods are applied for estimating dynamics of mortality in the U.S. from 1933--2000. A brief discussion of the results is provided.

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