JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #304495

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 144
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #304495
Title: Use of the Local Knox Statistic for the Prospective Monitoring of Disease Occurrences in Space and Time
Author(s): J. Brooke Marshall*+ and Dan Spitzner and William H. Woodall
Companies: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Address: Department of Statistics, Blacksburg, VA, 24061-0439,
Keywords: Public Health Surveillance ; Space-Time Clusters ; Local Knox Statistic ; CUSUM ; ARL Performance
Abstract:

The detection of clusters of events occurring close together both temporally and spatially is important in finding outbreaks of disease within a geographic region. The Knox statistic often is used in epidemiology to test for space-time clustering retrospectively. This statistic is simply a count of the number of occurrences of disease or infection happening close in space and time. For quicker detection of epidemics, prospective methods should be used where observations are assessed as they are recorded. The surveillance method of Rogerson (2001) uses the cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart to monitor a localized Knox statistic, which can be calculated for single incoming observations. This method can be applied when the coordinates in space and the time of occurrences are observed sequentially within a given region. We evaluate the performance of this method by computing the average run length (ARL) of the CUSUM chart for different time and space closeness thresholds and for different control limit values. We also discuss the effect of nonuniform population density on the ARL and discuss issues that should be considered when implementing this method.

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Revised March 2005