JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #304241

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	405
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #304241
Title:	Optimizing Call Time Lags by Modeling the Probability of Call Outcomes
Author(s):	Brian Meekins*+ and Roberta Sangster and John F. Meekins
Companies:	Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Labor Statistics and Aerospace Corporation
Address:	2 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington, DC, 20212, United States
Keywords:	Call scheduling ; probability models
Abstract:	Knowledge of the optimal time lags following particular call outcomes in a telephone survey (e.g., callbacks, no answer, busy, refusal) are important for maximizing the number of completed interviews in a given sample and utilizing resources with maximum efficiency. Previous research estimating time lags usually treats each attempt as completely independent or dependent only upon the immediately preceding calling event, failing to recognize a probability structure dependent on call history. This work extends research by Sangster and Meekins (2004) that uses the proportional hazards of contact and interview completion/refusal in models incorporating a variety of call history variables and mean lag between attempts. This research estimates optimal time lags by modeling the probability of contact or completion using a survival model approach. Estimates are obtained from the call histories and lag times of respondents to the Telephone Point-of-Purchase Survey, a nationally representative, list-assisted RDD survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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