JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #304233

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 128
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
Abstract - #304233
Title: The Use of Accelerated TestingTo Develop a Cumulative Damage Model to Predict Service Life of Materials Subjected to Outdoor Weathering
Author(s): William Q. Meeker*+
Companies: Iowa State University
Address: Department of Statistics, Ames, IA, 50011, United States
Keywords: Arrhenius ; Durability ; Nonlinear regression ; Reliability
Abstract:

Accelerated test methods are used to predict service life in a timely manner. For example, automobile manufacturers would like to develop a three-month test to predict 10-year field reliability of a coating system (an acceleration factor of 40). Prediction of outdoor weathering is a particularly challenging task and most previous attempts to establish an adequate correlation between laboratory tests and field experience has met with failure. This talk describes the statistical aspects of a cooperative project being conducted at the NIST to generate experimental data to develop a model relating cumulative damage to environmental variables such as UV spectrum and intensity, temperature, and relative humidity. The cumulative damage model parameters can be estimated from laboratory data. The model will be verified by comparing it with specimens tested in an outdoor environment for which the environmental variables were carefully measured. Then, predictions for future service life can be made as a function of a stochastic process model that characterizes environmental variables (e.g., weather) in a given location.

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Revised March 2005