JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #304186

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Activity Number: 276
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Quality and Productivity
Abstract - #304186
Title: Belief Functions Applied to System Reliability
Author(s): Wai F. Chiu*+ and Arthur P. Dempster
Companies: Los Alamos National Laboratory and Harvard University
Address: Statistical Sciences Group D1, Los Alamos, NM, 87545,
Keywords: Belief functions ; Dempster-Shafer theory ; System reliability ; Fault trees ; Prediction
Abstract:

Our approach to system reliability extends familiar Bayesian methods to include Dempster-Shafer (DS) belief functions. Numerical examples illustrate DS inferences for simple AND-gate and OR-gate systems, including system and component failure rates for a population of systems, and predicted outcomes for a future system and its components. We demonstrate a theorem asserting that system predictions can be obtained in two equivalent ways: by inferring population properties for the system and deducing predictions for a new system and by predicting the success or failure of each component and using logic to predict for the full system.

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