JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #304156

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 102
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2005 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #304156
Title: A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Glacier Dynamics
Author(s): Rajib Paul*+ and Mark Berliner and Noel Cressie and Kenneth Jezek
Companies: The Ohio State University and The Ohio State University and The Ohio State University and The Ohio State University
Address: 1958 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH, 43210, United States
Keywords:
Abstract:

Ice shelves and glaciers play an important role in determining both polar and global climate, for example melting ice impacts ocean circulation and sea levels. Understanding the relative forces controlling the flow of ice streams is essential for developing models for future evolution of polar ice systems. In our project, we are developing analyses for the Whillans Ice Stream, which drains into the Ross Ice Shelf and the Lambert Glacial system of Antarctica. Our datasets include remotely-sensed observations of ice thickness, the topography of ice surfaces and velocities of surface flow. All these components are combined mathematically into a physical statistical model that yields the posterior distribution for basal stress fields and velocity fields, conditional on the data. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis provides a mechanism for tackling the problem. Wavelet-based techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are used extensively.

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Revised March 2005