JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #304097

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

To View the Program:
You may choose to view all activities of the program or just parts of it at any one time. All activities are arranged by date and time.



The views expressed here are those of the individual authors
and not necessarily those of the ASA or its board, officers, or staff.

The Program has labeled the meeting rooms with "letters" preceding the name of the room, designating in which facility the room is located:

Minneapolis Convention Center = “MCC” Hilton Minneapolis Hotel = “H” Hyatt Regency Minneapolis = “HY”

Back to main JSM 2005 Program page
Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 200
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2005 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #304097
Title: Nonlinear Stochastic Modeling of Aphid Population Growth
Author(s): James Matis*+ and Thomas R. Kiffe and Tim I. Matis
Companies: Texas A&M University and Texas A&M University and New Mexico State University
Address: 1908 bee creek, college station, TX, 77840, United States
Keywords: cumulant truncation ; birth-death process ; moment closure approximations
Abstract:

Aphids are a group of small, sap-sucking insects that are serious pests of agricultural crops around the world. Our application concerns describing the abundance of the black-margined aphid, Monellia caryella, in a well-managed pecan orchard in Texas in 2000. Prajneshu (1998) develops a novel mechanistic model for aphid population growth in which the death rate is proportional to the product of current size times the "cumulative" size. The model has an analytical solution, and we demonstrate its utility by fitting it successfully to the 192 individual aphid abundance curves in the orchard. We develop a stochastic analog of the model and find its "exact" solution by solving a large set of Kolmogorov equations. Moment closure approximations also are developed. They involve solving a set of five differential equations and are easy to obtain in practice. These approximations give an accurate point estimate of the peak aphid abundance and an accurate interval estimate of the final cumulative aphid count. The mechanistic underpinnings of the model are common to all aphid species, hence the new model should be useful for managing this key agricultural pest.

  • The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
  • Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2005 program

JSM 2005 For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473. If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.
Revised March 2005